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India’s Prime Minister seems to have visions for his country’s place in the world and the strength to do something for it. In an earlier comment, we already recognised the Prime Minister’s balanced approach to strategic partnerships. When receiving the Chinese leader, recently, he constructively agreed on a substantial partnership for the development of Indian infrastructure, but did not hesitate to raise controversial topics in the presence of his state guest. When visiting the US, just a month ago, the leaders’ joint statement indicated the breadth of the talks and a certain revival of the strategic partnership, but no visible progress on substantial topics of common interests and common endeavours was registered. One of the latest moves in the sphere of strategic partnerships comes from the vicinity. Vietnam’s Prime Minister came to see his Indian counterpart the other day. The content of the talks and the subjects of agreements signed did not make it to world media headlines, but were important enough to trigger comments from China. India and Vietnam signed agreements of increased cooperation in defence, security and energy. India will supply naval vessels and increase military training programs; Vietnam will call on India for the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas fields in the South China Sea. Promptly, the Chinese leadership publicly stated that it will “resolutely oppose any oil and gas cooperation which harms China’s sovereignty and interests”. In Beijing’s view, its sovereignty is being harmed when oil exploration takes place in waters that are disputed. But it is for China to define which waters in the South China Sea are disputed and which ones are undisputed. That is a reference to the ongoing conflict among South China Sea neighbouring nations such as China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. Overlapping claims to sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea have given rise to substantive conflicts over maritime claims to Exclusive Economic Zones. Disputes are unresolved and are set to remain unresolved for the time being. Vietnam is the most vulnerable neighbour against Chinese claims. India, however, does not have any stake in this territorial conflict. But it has its own conflict with China along the whole Himalayan border between the two Asian giants. So, strategically speaking, India and Vietnam share a comparable antagonism with China with a comparable potential of open conflict, i.e. war. That is the background against which India responded positively to Vietnam’s demands in the field of supportive military cooperation. Prime Minister Modi’s tactics are all but accidental; when receiving the Chinese Head of State some weeks ago, he simultaneously sent his President, Pranab Mukherjee, on a state visit to Vietnam. It appears more and more obvious that Modi, with all his endeavours on priority domestic issues, has kept a clear view on the full picture of India’s strategic environment. And in view of a power balance in South East Asia, India’s contribution as “half outsider” to the region, must be welcomed by the rest of the world, who still ask themselves how to respond to China’s drive to hegemony. In earlier days of his political career, Narendra Modi had unacceptable domestic, i.e. communal priorities, but today, in charge of the world’s second largest nation and its fate in world affairs, he seems to have abandoned old and insane legacies. The on-looking world may be surprised, but certainly cherishes what it sees .. and hopes for sustained leadership of that sort.

31^st October 2014 / Philippe Welti

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