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Beijing's 'illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive' strategy will test New Delhi.

China’s tendency to spring a surprise at every juncture in the tortuous trajectory of its dynamics with India is redoubtable. There was a perception that ties were on an upswing after China and India agreed to disengage and resume patrolling in Depsang and Demchok in October 2024, and which was followed by both sides trying to normalise their relationship after a straining four-year military stand-off.

The mirage of rapprochement has been hit by China’s illegal and deceptive actions that have repercussions for the Line of Control (LAC). China created two counties in Xinjiang’s Hotan prefecture, and portions of these new administrative units lie in the Union Territory of Ladakh. The timing of this development is interesting since it comes soon after the meeting of the two special representatives (SRs) — India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and China’s foreign minister Wang Yi. An agreement signed during then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s official visit to Beijing in 2003 put in place the SRs’ framework that was tasked with looking into ways to resolve the boundary question from a political perspective. New Delhi immediately lodged a diplomatic protest, stating that it had never agreed to Beijing’s illegal occupation of Indian territory, and that promulgation of the new administrative units could not alter India’s position.

China created two counties in Xinjiang’s Hotan prefecture, and portions of these new administrative units lie in the Union Territory of Ladakh.

China’s unilateral actions thus try to create a false impression of an accord. Deception has been China’s stock-in-trade in dealing with territorial disputes. The Philippines foreign ministry accused China of using “fake narratives” in connection with the ongoing maritime dispute in the South China Sea with a design to spreading confusion among the public, and interfere in its domestic affairs. The war of words escalated after China released an audio recording in 2024, purportedly between a senior Philippine naval officer and a Chinese diplomat, to create a perception that there was an informal understanding between the two nations with respect to a dispute regarding the Second Thomas Shoal.

China has also greenlighted what is being termed as the world’s largest hydroelectric project on the Yaluzangbu river in Tibet. The new plan is said to have three times the electricity-generating potential of the Three Gorges Dam on China’s Yangtze river — the world’s largest hydropower project till date. New Delhi has raised ecological concerns with Beijing, and underscoring issues related to transparency and the need for consultation with lower riparian states. There are sensitivities expressed regarding the downstream states of the Bramhaputra river.

These fears are not unfounded since China has earlier tried to weaponise water. Construction of dams on the Mekong river has wreaked havoc on lower riparian states in Southeast Asia. Closer home, during the 2017 military confrontation in the Doklam trijunction in Bhutan, Beijing refused to share hydrological data with New Delhi. Such information is crucial, since it helps in forecasting the possibility of flooding and other contingencies. There is also a sinister conjecture about whether China is trying to play God. Union defence minister Rajnath Singh recently voiced concerns as to whether climate change was indeed responsible for natural disasters that are occurring at regular intervals in Union Territories like Ladakh and only a few border states like Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Sikkim. He argued that while the Himalayan ranges stretched to other states, only the “border states” were facing the brunt of the natural disasters. Efforts are on by the security establishment to ascertain whether or not any “enemy nation” is involved.

Beijing wholeheartedly promotes the notion of win-win cooperation, yet in practice it is the interests of China that take precedence over sharing of natural resources with its neighbours in a fair and equitable manner.

Beijing has been trying to portray itself as a responsible stakeholder in the efforts to combat climate change and emissions. At the United Nations Summit on Biodiversity in September 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China’s aim to become carbon neutral by 2060. Thus, China seeks to put a green sheen on the Yaluzangbu river plan, situating the hydroelectric project as part of its shift away from fossil-fuel energy sources in order to meet its goal of net-carbon neutrality. It has sidestepped concerns about how the power project could affect the fragile ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau, local residents, and downstream nations. This gives New Delhi an opportunity to show the world the yawning gap between Xi’s noble words and devious deeds on his commitment to the environment. If 1.4 million Chinese were displaced for the construction of Three Gorges Dam, how many will the current hydroelectric project drown should be a talking point. Besides, engineers would need to drill through hard mountain rock to construct tunnels that will divert some quantity of the river’s flow to generate power. In the aftermath of the earthquake in Tibet this month, the onus is on Beijing to declare how safe is drilling activity in a seismically vulnerable mountainous terrain. Lastly, Beijing wholeheartedly promotes the notion of win-win cooperation, yet in practice it is the interests of China that take precedence over sharing of natural resources with its neighbours in a fair and equitable manner.

Shortly after a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in October — their first since a border clash in Galwan in 2020 — the two sides reached an agreement to de-escalate tensions along the LAC. With the new developments, it could cast fresh uncertainty for the India-China ties that seemed to be on the mend in recent times.

With the new developments, it could cast fresh uncertainty for the India-China ties that seemed to be on the mend in recent times.

To conclude, a Filipino general has argued that Beijing’s belligerent behaviour goes beyond the bland terminology of grey-zone warfare, classifying it as “ICAD”, meaning “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive”. This redesignation has come in response to China’s increasing use of maritime militias and water cannons against Filipino civilian vessels in the South China Sea. While Xi’s military-coercion gambit may have failed to achieve the desired outcome, we will have to be cognisant of non-conventional measures through which China may hobble India on the LAC and beyond. In the months to come, Beijing’s “ICAD” strategy will test New Delhi’s cautious normalisation.

Harsh V. Pant (V-P.ORF) & Kalpit A Mankikar (ORF)
17 January 2025

 

 

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