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Recent Russia-North Korea interactions indicate a clear understanding between the two, likely involving North Korean military and diplomatic support as it modernises its arsenal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's remarks on the presence of North Korean troops in its temporarily occupied territories have caught international attention, raising concerns about the state of deepening ties between Russia and North Korea. Following the announcement, the South Korean President called for an urgent national security meeting, after which South Korean intelligence agencies confirmed that they believed that North Korea had sent their troops. However, both, Russia and North Korea have refuted these claims.

 

"The South Korean President called for an urgent national security meeting, after which South Korean intelligence agencies confirmed that they believed that North Korea had sent their troops."

 

Nonetheless, if proven to be true, this would be considered a drastic step up in their bilateral ties since the signing of the Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June this year. Following the Treaty, there was already a visible increase in high-level bilateral visits between Russia and North Korea, from ministerial to senior officials. Nevertheless, the pace at which their strategic ties had developed signalled North Korea and Russia were not shying away from openly supporting each other. The troop deployment will only validate the deepening of their ties, highlighting the importance of North Korea in Moscow’s strategic calculus and vice-versa.

Strengthening military cooperation

All this started with Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Kim Jong Un this year to reinvigorate their bilateral ties. Following the meeting, the relations have progressed at an unprecedented pace. Thus, the North Korean troop deployment will only prove that both parties are not hesitating to display their support on the battlefield and in diplomatic avenues, as already seen.

However, this military bonhomie between the two countries started last year with the visit of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who attended the Weaponry Exhibition 2023 alongside Kim Jong Un, signifying the importance of arms exports in this relationship. Post his visit, the defence cooperation has increased drastically, benefiting both the Russian and North Korean military economies. Nonetheless, the initial dealings started in the first year of the Russian invasion, when North Korea supported Russia by exporting arms and ammunition. Since then, the exports of military equipment have continued unabated.

Some of the major arms exports between Russia and North Korea, claimed by South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff, include 2,000 containers of military equipment, including 200,000 rounds and 1 million 122 mm artillery shells and 152 mm shells, respectively. Other arms exports, part of the tranche, include short-range ballistic missiles, machine guns, rocket launchers, and anti-tank guided missiles.

 

"The initial dealings started in the first year of the Russian invasion, when North Korea supported Russia by exporting arms and ammunition. Since then, the exports of military equipment have continued unabated."

 

Some open-source evidence of weapons transfer includes the Russian military jet routine visits to Pyongyang, the latest one on 18 October, when a Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il 62-M landed at the Sunan Airport in North Korea. A similar plane also landed at the same airport earlier last month on 20 September, then flew to Khabarovsk and returned to Pyongyang on 22 September. In addition, it is suspected that Russian naval vessels are also transferring arms from the North Korean port of Rason, infamous for exporting 13,000 shipping containers carrying arms since 2022.

As per South Korean Intelligence, North Korea has decided to send its troops to an active war, deploying four brigades of 12,000 soldiers, including their special forces, signalling its allegiance to Russia. However, this is not the first time that North Korea has sent its troops to another country. During the height of the Cold War, it sent its troops to participate in wars in North Vietnam and Egypt. In addition, the country has also been accused of helping and training the Tanzania and Mozambique military and even providing missile systems. Besides, North Korea has always shown its support to both state and non-state actors in what it saw as a fight against Western imperialism. For instance, in the run-up to 1973, as war was becoming imminent between Egypt and Israel, and the formers severed ties with the erstwhile Soviet Union, North Korea stepped in, sending 20 experienced pilots and 1,500 personnel to support the Egyptian Air Force in handling their Soviet Air Force assets such as the surface-to-air missiles.

Intensifying Russian support to North Korea

In exchange for material support, Russia has also intensified its comprehensive cooperation with North Korea in diplomatic avenues like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), even supporting the North Korean nuclearisation agenda.

During a recent episode of an alleged incursion by a South Korean drone dispersing propaganda leaflets, Russia, unlike North Korea’s other northern neighbour, China, came out in support and condemned South Korea. Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said that ‘Such acts are a blatant encroachment on (North Korea's) sovereignty and internal affairs to destroy its legal state and political framework and deny it the right to its development.’ This unequivocal support was quite unprecedented.

 

"During a recent episode of an alleged incursion by a South Korean drone dispersing propaganda leaflets, Russia, unlike North Korea’s other northern neighbour, China, came out in support and condemned South Korea."

 

Another landmark decision was the Russian veto of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea, responsible for monitoring its multilateral sanctions. After its discontinuation, Russia flouted UN sanctions openly. For instance, Russian President Putin gifted Kim Jong Un a Russian-made Aurus Limousine, openly violating the sanctions. Similarly, RUSI, a UK-based think tank report investigation, highlighted the increasing oil trade by North Korean vessels from Russia’s Vostochny port, violating the UN-mandated 500,000 barrels of oil in favour of arms for oil arrangement between the two countries.

However, the most serious U-turn was Russian support for the nuclearisation of North Korea; this stands in stark contrast to Russia’s traditional position. In a briefing, Sergey Lavrov said that for Russia, ‘the very term of 'denuclearisation' as applied to North Korea has lost all meaning. For us, this is a closed issue.’ This is opposite to Russian condemnation of Pyongyang's nuclear test and its support for sanctions. In 2017, a Russian spokesperson in UNSC said that ‘his country did not accept the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s claim to be a nuclear-weapon State.’ This change highlights Moscow’s prioritising its geopolitical interests, supporting Kim’s nuclear agenda over proliferation concerns, unlike China, which continues to support denuclearisation.

Far-reaching strategic alignment

These developments, including troop deployment and arms exports, are tactical. However, there is a strategic logic to closer military cooperation between the two. To understand that, it is critical to look closely at the regional geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia between the US and its allies, South Korea and Japan. Two notable developments concern Russia and North Korea—South Korea-Japan-US trilateral security cooperation and NATO deepening ties with South Korea and Japan. Furthermore, the Japanese Prime Minister’s latest Asian NATO idea and the US Ambassador's remarks on Asian economic NATO have only strengthened the concerns in Moscow and Pyongyang about the West's and its allies' intention to corner them. Recently, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, in a press conference confirmed this thesis, stating, ‘It is obvious today that the United States and its allies decided to draw the Asia-Pacific Region into NATO’s sphere of interests by creating all these narrow and exclusive US-led military and political associations. This includes the troika formed by the United States, Japan and South Korea.’

While the question regarding why North Korea will likely send its troops is important, what is more critical to understand is what it is getting in return for its strong support for Russia. Whilst the answer to the question remains unclear due to the opacity of information, based on some reports and the recent Russian support for North Korea, it looks like Pyongyang has reached an understanding with Moscow. This understanding will likely entail providing military and diplomatic support both in materiel and kind, particularly as North Korea looks to modernise and upgrade its arsenal. Some reports suggest Russia has already supported North’s space programme, and other modern systems, such as fighter jets and air defence, will likely be the low-hanging fruits. Beijing’s unresponsive attitude and neutrality have acted as a tacit support to this relationship. Thus, going forward, if military cooperation persists between Russia and North Korea, we will likely see the latter coming out of its strategic aloofness and becoming a spoiler for the US and its allies in the region. This will likely have strategic implications for Northeast Asian regional stability and the larger Indo-Pacific region.

Abhishek Sharma
5 November 2024

 

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