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Long-term predictions
Economic forecasting is hard. However the last OECD report is based on solid arguments.It highlights that the balance of economic power will shift dramatically over the next 50 years.
The fast growing economies of China and India according to that study will by 2025 be worth more that the combined gross domestic product of the group of G7 countries (US-Japan-Germany-Britain-France-Italy-Canada).
Moreover China GDP's growth will be overtaken by growth rates in the emerging economies of India and Indonesia.
According to this OECD report "the US is expected to cede it's place as the world's largest economy to China,as early as 2016".
Even India's GDP despite the current weakness of it's economy is expected to pass that on the US over the long term.
It is undeniable that China will face a demographic problem due to it's aging population and that India suffers from a lack of economic reform and of investment in it's infrastructures.
But it should be borne in mind that in 2010,only two years ago, China and India's combined GDP accounted for less than one-half of G7 countries GDP !
No doubt that these two economies have made fast and deep progress.
India in particular, thanks to it's young and well educated population should be within the next twenty years in a position to take up the challenge for the leadership of the world economy.
However we got perhaps a bit carried away if we consider another report wrote up by the World Bank (Doing business Report 2012-2013).
This report ranks India at just 132nd out of 185 countries in ease of doing business and China at place 91.
It highlights concerning India a few important reforms like reducing the time required to obtain a building permit which was until now a real brainteaser.
It also implemented the regulation to reduce the export time.
But India's ranking according to this report is still bad if we consider a few other elements essential to start a business.
As mentionned before dealing with construction permits, but also enforcing contracts or getting electricity remain tough.
And we must admit that this is still the current situation and that it will only improve slowly. But India's economy comes from far away and is now on the right track.
India's elite has no intention whatever of giving up the economic reform policies.
And their determination is undoubtedly in line with india's great future.
November 12th 2012
D.T. for Indiary
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