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This must commence with a wholehearted condemnation of the terrorist actions against innocent citizens in Brussels and expression of empathy with those who lost family and friends in this continuing madness that the world is witnessing. This is not going to end anytime so soon because we are up against people whose minds are completely warped by irrational thoughts and hatred brought on by cycles of earlier violence and equally irrational responses which have brought entire communities within their ambit. When human beings take it upon themselves not to use God’s gift of rationalism then they become the equivalent of animals in society. That is what Europe and many parts of the world are suffering from, disallowing rationality to become the mantra of our times. It is akin to times in the 20^th Century when other rabid ideologies too prevailed.

Success of French and Belgian security agencies against the perpetrators of the Paris attacks a few months ago has been quickly offset by another terrorist serial action against soft targets in the Belgian capital of Brussels. The symbolism cannot be missed. It came within four days of the capture of Saleh Abdeslam the last of the Paris ten men squad still on the loose. That demonstrated the depth of capability of planning and execution of the terrorist sleeper networks in Western Europe. It also projected the capacity of Daesh to divert the battle away from the Middle East and take it to the heart of Europe in a city where the headquarters of two major organizations exist, NATO and the European Union. When terror organizations take it upon themselves to focus their efforts on soft targets complete denial of success is almost impossible. Minimization of effect is what agencies can achieve. Given Europe’s high footfalls in tourism, the existence of large transportation networks, fairly open borders and telecommunication systems the achievement of aim of the terrorists is not difficult. It is made easier by the presence of large communities of immigrants with perceived grievances not all being genuine.

Commentaries post terror related events focus much on the event itself which is essentially the symptom. That is because the real cause in this obfuscated environment is extremely difficult to peg. It is not just angst within youth or a latent anger of second and the third generations of immigrants at their lack of integration and full acceptance as naturalized citizens. There are linkages to religious radical ideology, the failure of liberalism to educate or even positively influence majority of populations which have migrated to the finer climes of Europe. Many Muslims continue to cling to their age old beliefs, feel their faith is under threat of dilution under pressures of liberalism and therefore close ranks to protect ancient beliefs which are at paradox with progressive thinking of liberal European society. The Muslim clergy is much to blame because its influence on the social dynamics of the followers of Islam is profound; much higher than in any other faith. It is not as if migrants of every other faith have effectively integrated. It is more that they are not militant and perceive no dilution of their own faith from the values of liberalism. Followers of Islam are unnecessarily hyper about their faith being constantly under threat. This isn’t helped in any way by events far away from Europe which is not in anyone’s control but where western armed forces unsuccessfully attempt to bring stability and each time upset the applecart.

The world has not seen the end of instability in the Middle East where a completely new dynamic may be developing with the weakening of the power of Saudi Arabia, the possible rise of Iran and an unpredictable sectarian confrontation. This will further exacerbate the already turbulent situation in Iraq and Syria. Daesh’s power is not apparently diluting and increasing pressure may only displace it to other regions in the midst of chaos such as Libya. North Africa is where much of Europe’s migrant populace comes from. The happenings in that region also influence the minds of many expatriates. Afghanistan is as yet unpredictable and Taliban style radical ideology is yet to see any major setbacks. Pakistan continues to be what it is even as we witnessed the response to the hanging of Mumtaz Qadri the assassin of Governor Salman Taseer who campaigned against Pakistan’s blasphemy laws; Islamic radicals of all shades conducted huge rallies to mark his ‘martyrdom’. So the Global War against Terror is really going nowhere. Militarily it may have achieved marginally but almost everywhere Islamic radical belief appears on the rise and the current manifestation of its effect is being felt most profoundly in Europe.

The migration crisis brought on by the instability in Syria, Iraq, North Africa and Afghanistan is worsening societal tension in Europe. The high quality of life enjoyed by a stable Euro society is under major threat. Twenty five years ago instability and turbulence were far away as Europe emerged from the Cold War into a period of relative peace. Tolerance and acceptance levels were of a higher order and liberalism helped assist in this. However demographic trends showed dwindling and aging populations necessitating import of labor if high quality life had to be maintained. This obviously comes at a price. As an observer of social dynamics I did find it odd that European society was willing to tolerate a lot even as rabble rousers among immigrants many a time held the core local society at ransom with their demands such as introduction of shariah system. By the time realization dawned and controls started being imposed it was apparently late. Then too the controls were ham handed, on aspects such as dress, hijab and head gear. Less than a century ago Kemal Pasha (Kemal Ataturk) converted Turkey from a Middle Eastern nation to a European one with panache. It doesn’t appear that model has ever been examined in depth. Attempts are being made today to restore Turkey to its older form as a throwback from the inability to effectively integrate with Europe.

There are paradoxes galore but what is increasingly clear is that migrant populations have not integrated into European society; have never really done so in the past and will not in future either. If Turkey and Turks are not accepted as European it is far too much to expect North Africans, Arabs and Afghans to do be accepted. With every passing day securitization of Europe will require greater controls over migrants, lesser respect for liberal values and compromise on freedom. All this will have an effect on psyche of migrants which will manifest in acts of violence. There will be many more Molenbeek type neighborhoods which will gain notoriety and migrants will increasingly live in clusters. I do remember Muslim families from the Indian subcontinent that migrated to the UK in the Seventies of the previous century. Their children were educated in the best British schools and they enjoyed every advantage British society faced. However, even today most of them stick to watching Islamic channels on television and are perhaps far more religious than Indian Muslims.

Good times in Europe are passé. It is not like the US which is secured by distance, oceans and stringent remorseless homeland security. If Europe has to follow the US example the blowback will be uncontrollable. Land based international borders are increasingly vulnerable to passage of illegal migrants, arms, finances and narcotics; this aspect of Europe’s vulnerability has to be accepted and kept in mind before future security systems are adopted.

Lastly I admit that it is a tad unfair to recommend to European governments the Indian model and ‘how and why’ Muslims in India feel more comfortable than in any other part of the world where they live as minority. That is because of the inherent system of tolerance and acceptance in this country. Besides Indian Muslims are not migrants; they too are the sons of the soil. Current debates on tolerance in Indian society are a passing phase of introspection. Indian society is essentially tolerant, something this nation should be extremely proud of. Yet, there are aspects that Europe can look at. As many say, there has to be something which India and Indians have done right; it is for social political scientists to deeply examine that and come up with answers.

The problems faced by Europe are not going to evaporate in a hurry. Much of the problem lies afar in the turbulent zones of the Middle East and Af-Pak which need stabilization and freedom from conflict.

Lt General S A Hasnain PVSM, UYSM, Visiting fellow VIF
29 March 2016

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