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Amidst Pyongyang’s spy satellite and Beijing’s hegemonic aspirations, the convergence of Seoul and Tokyo’s perspectives is changing the dynamics of Northeast Asia.

Recently, the Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, and the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, concluded their third meeting in two months. The meeting happened on the sidelines of the G7 summit and was to enhance bilateral relations between the two countries. The improvement in bilateral ties has been attributed to a convergence of perspectives regarding the North Korean nuclear threat and spy satellite and Chinese aggression. Thus, this article sheds light on how the current scenarios in East Asia are bringing the two states closer on security matters despite being at loggerheads for decades.

North Korea’s spy satellite

North Korea is posing an existential threat to South Korea and Japan due to the former’s nuclear arsenal and it has been recently amplified by its planned satellite launch. The satellite launch plan comes amidst the US-South Korea military drills which accelerated the tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Ri Pyong-Chol, the Vice Chairman of the Workers’ Party’s Central Military Committee, stated that the satellite is crucial for tracking, monitoring, discerning, controlling, and preemptively responding to perceived aggressive military actions by the US and its allied nations. He criticised joint military exercises such as ongoing live-fire “annihilation” drills and the US reconnaissance activities and justified the necessity of the satellite as a means to monitor what North Korea perceives as “dangerous military acts” by the US and South Korea.

 

"The satellite launch plan comes amidst the US-South Korea military drills which accelerated the tensions on the Korean Peninsula."

 

According to Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) launched a military reconnaissance satellite called ‘Malligyong-1’ using the new ‘Chollima-1’ satellite launching rocket on 31 May. However, North Korea later confirmed that the attempt to launch the military spy satellite into orbit was unsuccessful. The satellite lost propulsion during the second stage of ascent and ultimately crashed into the Yellow Sea. This marked North Korea’s first attempt to launch a satellite into orbit since February 2016. Previously, North Korea had admitted the failure of a satellite launch in April 2012 and did not make a second attempt until December of the same year.

Post the launch, it immediately withdrew criticism about the US, South Korea, and Japan. Moreover, Japan had put its ballistic missile defences on alert and its Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada ordered the Self Defence Force to shoot down any satellite or debris that threatens its territory. Whereas, South Korea warned North Korea, cautioning that there will be consequences if it proceeded with its launch plan, which would violate the United Nations Security Council resolutions that prohibit North Korea from conducting any launches involving ballistic technology. Moreover, Yoon Suk Yeol called for a global proliferation organisation to enhance its efforts in addressing North Korea’s nuclear programme citing the latter’s growing security threat. In addition, the US strongly condemned the action and reiterated its allies’ concerns. 

The China factor

Japan recognises the major challenge in the region, including the rise of China, its aggressive maritime policies, its support for North Korea, and its ability to negatively impact the economy, diplomacy, and regional security. These challenges are also vehemently acknowledged by South Korea.  Both nations are facing the brunt of Chinese aggression, which is also leading to shrinking economic benefits. A fundamental aspect of this transformation is the changing landscape of each country’s key export sectors, with a particular focus on the automotive industry, including the notable expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) market. According to a new Climate Group report, Japan’s slow progress in the EV market poses a risk to its car industry. Chinese carmakers are making significant strides in this sector and could potentially dominate the market. Therefore, the automotive industry in Japan is facing the potential loss of approximately 1.7 million jobs, accompanied by significant financial setbacks. The repercussions of this scenario could lead to a substantial decline of 14 percent in Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as indicated by the report’s findings, which would worsen the geopolitical scenario.

 

"Japan recognises the major challenge in the region, including the rise of China, its aggressive maritime policies, its support for North Korea, and its ability to negatively impact the economy, diplomacy, and regional security."

 

Similarly, South Korea has witnessed a comparable trend, with its market share in China declining to less than 2 percent in 2022—a significant decrease from the nearly 8 percent held in 2016. This decline has prompted Korean carmakers to close certain factories in China, resulting in a substantial 40 percent drop in sales as compared to 2021. However, the consequences of this diminishing market share and heightened competition from Chinese companies extend beyond South Korea’s automotive industry. Notably, overall exports from South Korea to China have undergone a significant decline in 2023, primarily attributed to a sharp decrease in the export of South Korean semiconductors to the Chinese market.

Furthermore, the bilateral relations between China and South Korea are experiencing a decline, largely stemming from China’s protest of President Yoon’s position on Taiwan, with China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong categorising the statements as erroneous and wholly unacceptable. Moreover, there has been an instance where the South Korean embassy in Beijing lodged a complaint against Chinese state newspapers, Huanqiu Shibao and Global Times, for their criticism of President Yoon’s attempt to foster friendly relations with Washington and Tokyo. Therefore, these recent events have impacted the security and diplomatic relations with China and have revised the geopolitics of the region.

Geopolitics of Northeast Asia

Japan has intensified its efforts to address the challenges posed by China’s economic and military rise. Similarly, South Korea has adopted a more assertive stance in response to Beijing’s aggressive expansion in the region. President Yoon of South Korea, during an interview with Reuters in April, emphasised that the increased tension surrounding Taiwan is a result of China’s attempts to forcefully alter the status quo. However, it is important to consider whether recent diplomatic disputes between China-Japan and China-Korea are eroding the economic foundation that previously secured their respective relations. Additionally, the diminishing advantages of trade complementarity with Beijing coupled with the escalating economic challenges are contributing to the strengthening relationship between South Korea and Japan. Therefore, the often-overlooked straining economic factor may amplify the tensions in the region, which has been exclusively observed from the lens of ethnic, historical, and territorial disputes.

 

"The bilateral relations between China and South Korea are experiencing a decline, largely stemming from China’s protest of President Yoon’s position on Taiwan, with China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong categorising the statements as erroneous and wholly unacceptable."

 

Furthermore, Seoul and Tokyo are facing significant external pressure to address their historical differences and play a role in establishing a united security front in the Far East region, aimed at countering the influence of China and North Korea. This situation could potentially lead to a closer alignment between Japan and South Korea with the US. Moreover, the US is actively trying to bring its allies together under the same umbrella and promoting strategies aimed at building resilient supply chains, which could create new trade prospects for its allies. Additionally, the US is seeking to establish a broader coalition amongst advanced economies to counterbalance China’s technological advancements. However, despite concerns about South Korea’s vulnerability to China due to its economic influence, experts believe that the deepening alignment between Seoul and Tokyo will persist, as Beijing and Pyongyang remain steadfast in their respective courses and are unlikely to change their behaviors in the region in the near future.

Abhishek Kumar Singh (ORF)
27 June 2023

 

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