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The recent trilateral summit between Japan, the Philippines and the US reflects the shared interests to improve collective response and self-defence in the region.

The first Japan, the Philippines, and the United States (JAPHUS) trilateral summit on 12 December illustrated the urgency among the three countries to collectively play larger and more proactive roles as responsible stakeholders of the regional rules-based order beyond the traditional hub-and-spokes framework amidst the exacerbating security conditions in the West Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. Thus, the push for a trilateral arrangement reflects the shared interest of Washington, Manila, and Tokyo to deepen their integration and improve collective response and self-defence at a time when China seeks to pursue its expansionist interests at the expense of international law.

 

"Discussions at the summit formally commenced the trilateral partnership and covered inclusive economic growth and resilience alongside support for the IPEF, partnering in the development of critical emerging technologies, and advancing clean energy supply chains."

 

The 2023 US Department of Defence report, which highlights China as the primary competitor capable of challenging the international order through its actions in the South and East China Seas and the Taiwan Strait, underscores the urgency of addressing China's growing assertiveness in the region. These two concerns are key motivators for the summit, where the three leaders reinforced their dedication to peace and security across the Indo-Pacific and globally. Discussions at the summit formally commenced the trilateral partnership and covered inclusive economic growth and resilience alongside support for the IPEF, partnering in the development of critical emerging technologies, and advancing clean energy supply chains. The two most important developments were first, the announcement of the Luzon economic corridor as part of the first Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment corridor. This initiative aims to bolster connectivity between key Philippine hubs: Subic Bay, Clark, Manila, and Batangas. As part of this endeavour, the three nations pledge to expedite investments in pivotal infrastructure projects encompassing rail networks, port enhancements, clean energy, semiconductor supply chains, agribusiness, and civilian port upgrades at Subic Bay. Second, the joint statement reaffirmed US alliance commitments as ironclad and underscored the trio's unwavering commitment to maintaining peace and security in the Indo-Pacific in the context of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) dangerous and aggressive behaviour in the South and East China Seas as well as the Taiwan Strait.

With a focus on maritime security, the leaders’ Joint Vision Statement emphasised the need to keep the Indo-Pacific’s maritime domain free, open, and rules-based. Along with the clear emphasis on the need to adhere to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 2016 Arbitral Ruling, which nullified China’s expansive claims within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, more trilateral maritime activities were announced. Once the Philippines and Japan conclude the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), the logistics of such exercises will be further improved. More importantly, the document also highlighted the necessity for the novel trilateral to integrate itself within the existing network of minilaterals in the region, including the QUAD, AUKUS, and the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral. This is crucial in ensuring that JAPHUS activities will be supplemented by other significant partnerships based on shared goals in the Indo-Pacific.

 

"Once the Philippines and Japan conclude the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), the logistics of such exercises will be further improved."

 

Japan's strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific has evolved alongside its “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy and this trilateral alliance, underscores Japan's strategic recalibration in response to the shifting power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in light of the escalating US-China rivalry. Japan's engagement in this trilateral format is a strategic endeavour aimed at bolstering its regional security posture, enhancing diplomatic leverage, and deepening its already well-established security ties with its longstanding ally, the United States, alongside a key regional partner, the Philippines.

Bearing in mind how collective resilience is crucial for the success of JAPHUS, it is clear that the Philippines trails behind in terms of its defence and economic capabilities. In this light, the Summit witnessed several important breakthroughs that aimed to enhance the Philippines’ security and economic resilience. For instance, a bipartisan bill was introduced to the US Congress, which would provide the Philippines with US$2.5 billion in five years to boost the Southeast Asian country’s defence capabilities and fast-track its military modernisation program. In addition, the Luzon Economic Corridor was also launched. This infrastructure and development project is the first of its kind in the region under the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.

Once operational, this will provide coordinated investments in high-impact infrastructure projects and generate more jobs in the country as well. Enhancing the Philippines’ economic vitality is in the best interest of the trilateral to better address China’s multi-dimensional power projection in the region, which largely banks on leveraging its asymmetrically interdependent commercial ties with its smaller neighbours. Moreover, the economic corridor will also better position the Philippines within the semiconductor supply chain and allow the Southeast Asian country to better utilize and leverage its critical resources such as nickel. However, given the size of such a project, it will be important for Washington to ensure its long-term commitment given past impediments due to bureaucratic challenges in funding such projects. However, there have been positive and coordinated efforts in the US to take part in the Philippines’ growth story. This includes the US$ 1 billion investment plan to boost the Philippine innovative economy.

 

"Enhancing the Philippines’ economic vitality is in the best interest of the trilateral to better address China’s multi-dimensional power projection in the region, which largely banks on leveraging its asymmetrically interdependent commercial ties with its smaller neighbours."

 

With a strengthened as well as an expanded scope of security collaboration with the United States and the Philippines, Tokyo can enhance its strategic depth, boost its deterrence potential vis-à-vis regional aggressions, and reinforce efforts aimed at the maintenance of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Leveraging Japan's longstanding support in the region, particularly through the Japan International Cooperation Agency, the trio intends to collaborate with multilateral bodies and private entities to attract substantial, transformative investments.

The Washington-Tokyo partnership, built on a foundation of shared democratic values and strategic interests, has successfully navigated the complexities of the post-Cold War era and remains a key pillar of regional and global security. In recent years, Japan and the US have sought to modernise and expand their alliance in response to the shifting security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. Japan's adoption of new defence guidelines and its efforts to increase defence spending and capabilities, including the acquisition of advanced US military technology, signify a more proactive stance in regional security. The three countries are already in talks for setting up a joint cyber defence framework, to safeguard government agencies and critical infrastructure.

While the Summit can be described as successful given the practical and forward-looking plans all three states have forged, the need to maximise and sustain the momentum of this emerging trilateral will be one of the largest challenges. Strategic alignment on Taiwan between the US, Japan, and the Philippines may vary with the Philippines' strategic position and large Filipino population in Taiwan marking it as a key, yet less certain, player facing potential economic and humanitarian crises in a Taiwan conflict scenario. Japan's deepening engagement with the US and the Philippines must navigate the complex dynamics of regional diplomacy, historical sensitivities, and the diverse strategic priorities of the involved parties. For instance, the summit occurs amid concerns over US-Japan relations due to President Biden's opposition to Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel and the potential implications of Trump's possible return to the presidency. Therefore, the US, the Philippines, and Japan must consistently engage in network-based coordination mechanisms, while also providing a platform for politicians and decision-makers from all three countries to regularly meet and discuss shared objectives and concerns. National politics must smoothly align with foreign policy goals to ensure continuity despite changes in domestic political systems.

Pratnashree Basu (ORF) & Don McLain Gill (ORF)
26 April 2024

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